EffectsOfNextGen

insight from

FPThink

Cars will soon be able to avoid collisions, platoon at tight headways, carry people who are unable to drive, and drive robotically without anyone aboard.

 

How will they affect the way we plan and design multimodal transport infrastructure?

Predicted growth in autonomous vehicle travel, as percent of all highway vehicle miles traveled (VMT).

PredictedGrowth


NHTSA Levels of Autonomy

LevelsOfAutonomyChart

Future Scenario: Autonomous Vehicles at 25% of Traffic (2030-2035)

Does not include traffic flow benefit associated with reduced collisions.  VMT changes do not account for economic effects such as fuel price, labor force participation and demographic trends, which could suppress VMT.


Future Scenario: Autonomous Vehicles at 50% of Traffic (2040-2050)

Vphpl: vehicles per hour per lane.  Assumes autonomous vehicles are fully “connected vehicles” able to communicate and resolve conflicts among themselves without driver involvement. Does not include traffic flow benefit associated with reduced collisions. Benefits may be offset by induced VMT generated by autonomous vehicles and affected by economic factors such as changes in fuel price, labor force participation and demographic trends likely to influence VMT per capita.

 


Future Scenario: Autonomous Vehicles at 75% of Traffic (2040-2060)

Vphpl: vehicles per hour per lane.  2040 conditions assume car ‘ownership’ by subscription or federal new car equipment mandate. Also assumes autonomous vehicles are fully “connected vehicles” able to communicate and resolve conflicts among themselves  without driver involvement. Does not include traffic flow benefit associated with reduced collisions. Benefits may be offset by induced VMT generated by autonomous vehicles and affected by economic factors such as changes in fuel price, labor force participation and demographic trends likely to influence VMT per capita.

 


Future Scenario: Autonomous Vehicles at 95% of Traffic (2045-2070)

Vphpl: vehicles per hour per lane.  2045 conditions assume car ‘ownership’ by subscription or federal new car equipment mandate. Also assumes autonomous vehicles are fully “connected vehicles” able to communicate and resolve conflicts among themselves  without driver involvement. Does not include traffic flow benefit associated with reduced collisions. Benefits may be offset by induced VMT generated by autonomous vehicles and affected by economic factors such as changes in fuel price, labor force participation and demographic trends likely to influence VMT per capita.

 

When considering both the possible effects of Next-Generation Vehicles and Demographic Trends, the following trends come into focus.

FutureVMTBlue

Please contact Jerry Walters or any Fehr & Peers staff member to obtain complete copies of our white papers and learn more about how we are helping our clients better understand the implications of these changes on their investment decisions.